Feasibility of COVID-19 control from a pandemic to endemic (preprint)

Evaluations of the pandemic to endemic phase are a great concern, especially in Zero-COVID-19 countries. Herein, we developed a mathematical model to simulate future scenarios for the variants of concern (VOCs) in the condition of several immune barriers and controlling measures. The results demonstrated that the Omicron variant would lead to 592.0 (mean ± standard deviation (SD): 433.9–750.0) million symptomatic, 24.3 (mean ± SD: 17.4–312.8) million hospital admission, 9.6 (mean ± SD:7.0–12.3) million ICU admission, and 5.4 (mean ± SD:3.7–7.5) million death cases after simulation with 1,000 days. At the endemic phase, there were nearly 500 death cases per day attributed to reinfection (66% [range: 62–70%]), infection from birth (18% [range: 16–21%]), and infection from migration (16% [range: 14–17%]). Actively treating more than 80% of cases could effectively reduce disease severity and death rates. It is feasible to transmit pandemic to endemic with Omicron variant and other milder VOCs. We recommend that the successful transition strategy is to improve medical resource allocation and enhance the prevention and control capabilities of health agencies.

Hierarchical Model of Multi-level Index to Assess Local Resilience Capability in COVID-19 (preprint)

Background: Globally, there have been 212,544,565 confirmed cases of Corona Virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), including 4,441,428 deaths by 24 August 2021, reported to WHO. Facing the global pandemic of COVID-19, countries and regions have implemented different policies and taken different non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) according to their own circumstances. However, the quantitative assessment of national policies and local resilience capabilities is a huge challenge. Methods: In order to assess interventions and improve local resilience from a comprehensive perspective, this study aims to establish a multi-dimensional and dynamic prevention and control system. The main body of the system is an index system. To make our evaluation system more scientific and useful, the comparative study with several widely used tools or lessons is conducted to report what they have done. Then analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used to set up the framework under the concept of a multi-level strategy of public health management. Indicators in the system are determined by literature research and expert interviews. Results: Emergency capability assessment includes building a well-established system, execution of the system, and measurement. The well-established system exhibits several characteristics: 1) considering indicators about whole-of-society involvement, including country-, city-, local community- and individual-level; 2) improving capability at multi-phases, from the preparedness ability to response ability; 3) at both policy level and implementation level. Categories of containment and closure, response in economic system, and response in public health system constitute the main body of the framework. The well-established system does not necessarily apply to all scenarios, and the actual situation should be taken into consideration in the process of implementation/execution. At the stage of measurement, the case of Wuhan/Hubei response is introduced to implement and test our system. Empirical researches will be conducted to verify the index system quantitatively in our future research. Conclusions: Our index system can assess national policies and capabilities quantitatively. When enough data are available, it will become a tool to assess the local resilience capability for countries or regions.

Control measures during the COVID-19 outbreak reduced the transmission of hand, foot, and mouth disease

Control measures during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak may have limited the spread of infectious diseases. This study aimed to analyse the impact of COVID-19 on the spread of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in China. A mathematical model was established to fit the reported data of HFMD in six selected cities in mainland China from 2015 to 2020. The absolute difference (AD) and relative difference (RD) between the reported incidence in 2020, and simulated maximum, minimum, or median incidence of HFMD in 2015-2019 were calculated. The incidence and Reff of HFMD have decreased in six selected cities since the outbreak of COVID-19, and in the second half of 2020, the incidence and Reff of HFMD have rebounded. The results show that the total attack rate (TAR) in 2020 was lower than the maximum, minimum, and median TAR fitted in previous years in six selected cities (except Changsha city). For the maximum, median, minimum fitted TAR, the range of RD (%) is 42•20-99•20%, 36•35-98•41% 48•35-96•23% (except Changsha city) respectively. The preventive and control measures of COVID-19 have significantly contributed to the containment of HFMD transmission.